Value Betting | How To Find Value Bets In Sports Betting
Online betting can be just fun and games for many punters out there, but many others look at it from a different angle, hoping to actually make a profit by betting sports. Beating the bookies in the long run is actually very difficult and practically the only way to do it effectively is by finding bets where the bookies have overpriced one of the outcomes. This is called value betting.
A value bet is a bet where you believe the price that is offered on an outcome is higher than it should be. For instance, if you believe a side will win a match once out of two times and the bookies are pricing the event at 5/2, than this is a great bet to make. A great example of value betting on very long odds is horse racing, where professional punters regularly back underdogs who they believe are overpriced, even if the win is not very likely to happen.
Betting For Value Instead Of Predicting
As much as you may try, it is impossible to know the future and effectively predict the outcome of an event that is yet to happen. No matter how much you think you know who will win a match or how a game will end, the truth is you really can’t know what will happen in the future.
The best you can do is make a good statistical analysis of events and predict what probability an event has of happening. This should be an entirely mathematical process which does not include personal prejudice or hopes and dreams. In fact, you should likely never place bets on matches where your favorite teams are playing, as it may lead to prejudice and bets made out of a fan’s perspective.
True value betting comes down to statistics and mathematics. When you believe an outcome is overpriced, it is a good idea to bet on it no matter how unlikely it may seem to an average fan. Value betting is, in fact, the absolute only way to make money by betting sports in the long run.
Finding Solid Value Bets
Finding good value betting spots is the difficult part. In order to recognize a good value bet, you will need a great understanding of the sport you are betting and the understanding of the mathematical principles of probability. Instead of trying to predict the exact outcome of a match, a punter needs to predict just how likely things are to happen and then compare this probability with the odds offered.
Another important thing to do when looking for value bets is to find the best odds offered for a match. Even if a bet is good value at one bookmaker, there is a solid chance there is even more value to be had by placing the same bet with another bookie. This will increase your long term winnings and is the only true way to make a good profit in the long run. Make sure never to miss the extra 0.05 on the price, as this will make all the difference once all things are said and done.